A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. They authors two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail here and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
